September 2006 Archives

I’ll put up the related text later, but here’s today’s podcast:passwords for photofile.ru

If you’d prefer to listen to the original mp3 file, which provides the best sound quality, click the icon below. (Link launches your media player.)passwords for photofile.ru

You can also subscribe to my podcast using Apple’s iTunes.passwords for photofile.ru

Run time: 9:00.

ADDED — passwords for photofile.ru

This week:passwords for photofile.ru

Colorado 7
Open Republican seat
PVI: Democrat +2
GOP nominee: Rick O’Donnell
Democratic nominee: Ed Perlmutter
Projected Democratic pick-up
passwords for photofile.ru

Iowa 1
Open Republican seat
PVI: Democrat +5
GOP nominee: Mike Whalen
Democratic nominee: Bruce Braley
Projected Democratic pick-up
passwords for photofile.ru

North Carolina 11
PVI: Republican +7
GOP nominee: Charles Taylor, incumbent
Democratic nominee: Heath Shuler
Toss-up
passwords for photofile.ru

Illinois 6
Open Republican seat
PVI: Republican +3
GOP nominee: Peter Roskam
Democratic nominee: Tammy Duckworth
Toss-up
passwords for photofile.ru

Florida 22
PVI: Democrat +4
GOP nominee: Clay Shaw, incumbent
Democratic nominee: Ron Klein
Projected Republican hold
passwords for photofile.ru

Ohio 18
Open Republican seat
PVI: Republican +6
GOP nominee: Joy Padgett
Democratic nominee: Zack Space
Projected Democratic pick-up
passwords for photofile.ru

In the last two weeks:passwords for photofile.ru

Texas 22
Indiana 2
Indiana 8
Indiana 9
Connecticut 2
Arizona 8
Pennsylvania 7
New Mexico 1
Minnesota 6
Ohio 15
Kentucky 4
Virginia 2
passwords for photofile.ru

Next week:passwords for photofile.ru

Connecticut 4
Connecticut 5
Pennsylvania 6
Pennsylvania 8
Pennsylvania 10
Ohio 1
passwords for photofile.ru

So far, 18 races projected. 9 Democratic pick-ups. 4 Republican holds. 5 toss-ups. Races yet to be projected: 6. Bonus seat to Democrats (not included in the twenty-four races I’ve been tracking): Florida 16. (Incidentally, the loss of Mark Foley’s safe seat is making it hard for some of my Republican brethern to cope. How else to explain that?)passwords for photofile.ru

For maps of the congressional districts, go here.passwords for photofile.ru

For an explanation of Charlie Cook’s Partisan Voter Index (PVI), go here.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: 2006+elections, Congress, Democrats, Republicans, Colorado, Iowa, North+Carolina, Illinois, Florida, Ohiopasswords for photofile.ru

In real estate, the rule is “location, location, location.” In politics, the rule is “events, events, events.” If the Democrats didn’t already have the 15 seats they needed to win control of the House, they do now. Rep. Mark Foley, R-FL, has resigned from what was a safe Republican seat.passwords for photofile.ru

This election will be extraordinarly close, and it’s possible the Democrats could end up with a one seat majority; if so, the GOP will have been knocked from power by a same-sex “sex” scandal. That’s exquisitely ironic.passwords for photofile.ru

By the way, does the name Gerry Studds ring a bell with anybody? In 1983, he was a then-closeted Democratic member of Congress from Massachusetts who had done more than send solicitous e-mails to a teenage page. Studds had screwed a page. Studds did not resign, the House declined to expel him and his constituents re-elected him.passwords for photofile.ru

Or how about the name Stephen Gobie? That’s the name of the live-in hooker who in the late 1980s turned the apartment of another gay Massachusetts Democrat into a bordello. In addition to plowing Gobie for pay, Rep. Barney Frank used congressional stationery when writing letters of reference to the rent boy’s probation officer. Frank did not resign, the House declined to expel him and his constituents re-elected him. Rep. Frank is, in fact, still a member of Congress.passwords for photofile.ru

I don’t know why Mark Foley resigned. Maybe he resigned out of sheer embarrassment. And maybe he resigned because he thought Florida conservatives aren’t as forgiving as Massachusetts liberals. But I know what the reason for his resignation wasn’t: Foley did not resign — he could not have resigned — out of respect for congressional precedent.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Mark+Foley, 2006+elections, Congresspasswords for photofile.ru

The roll call of the House vote yesterday on the terrorist surveillance bill is here. The vote was 232-191.passwords for photofile.ru

AP has this report.passwords for photofile.ru

ADDED —passwords for photofile.ru

I should add that Senate passage is not expected before the pre-election break.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Electronic+surveillance, terrorism, Congresspasswords for photofile.ru

Here’s the lede:passwords for photofile.ru

The Democratic vote in the Senate on Thursday against legislation governing the treatment of terrorism suspects showed that party leaders believe that President Bush’s power to wield national security as a political issue is seriously diminished.passwords for photofile.ru

But only four paragraphs later, this is what we’re told:passwords for photofile.ru

Over all, 32 Democrats voted against the measure while 12, including some of those in the most difficult re-election fights, backed it. Among the latter was Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, whose perceived support for Mr. Bush has brought him political trouble at home.passwords for photofile.ru

If the president’s “power to wield national security as a political issue is seriously diminished,” why would Democrats in difficult re-election fights back legislation he favored? The Times’ headline reads, “Democrats see strength in bucking Bush.” But apparently some of them see weakness in bucking Bush. And is Joe Lieberman’s imminent re-election to the Senate the “political trouble at home” to which the Times refers?passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: New+York+Times, Democrats, Bush, 2006+electionspasswords for photofile.ru

I had no idea that the American people know as little about politics, public policy and government as they do (which is to say that I was ignorant of the ignorance). Americans are evidently not a politically well-informed people. But as Ilya Somin points out in the essay at the link, it’s not rational to expect them to be well-informed. Our Government is now so large and complex that people couldn’t keep up with it even if they wanted to.passwords for photofile.ru

Associated Press:passwords for photofile.ru

The Senate on Thursday endorsed President Bush’s plans to prosecute and interrogate terror suspects, all but sealing congressional approval for legislation that Republicans intend to use on the campaign trail to assert their toughness on terrorism.

The 65-34 vote means the bill could reach the president’s desk by week’s end. The House passed nearly identical legislation on Wednesday and was expected to approve the Senate bill on Friday, sending it on to the White House.

The House vote was 253-168. That roll call is here. I’ll post the roll call from the Senate when it becomes available.passwords for photofile.ru

ADDED — passwords for photofile.ru

Here’s the Senate’s roll call. Eleven Democrats voted yes. One Republican voted no. Can you guess which one? passwords for photofile.ru

On Fox News, I just heard Dick Morris say, “The big loser in all this is John McCain.” I think that’s right, even though McCain voted yes tonight. John McCain will not be the Republican nominee in 2008, and his cheerleading for terrorists’ rights is one reason why.passwords for photofile.ru

ADDED II —passwords for photofile.ru

Meanwhile, dissension on the Left. Here’s Yale law professor Jack Balkin: “What a spineless, worthless lot the Democrats in the Senate are. They deserve every lost Senate and House seat that comes from this.” It’s always good to see that liberals can be as unhappy with their leaders as we can be with ours. It provides perspective.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Detainee+interrogation, war+on+terror, Congresspasswords for photofile.ru

Take a look at this fascinating chart at Drug War Rant. Using inflation-adjusted dollars, it shows the U.S. retail price for a gram of cocaine falling by 62% since 1990. Meanwhile, cocaine production from Columbia, as measured in metric tons, has risen 595% since 1990.passwords for photofile.ru

Falling prices, rising production. This is what our Government calls success in the war on drugs.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: War+on+drugspasswords for photofile.ru

If you’re the iTunes sort, you can now find my podcast in Apple’s iTunes Store. Just click the button below.passwords for photofile.ru

Gay.com: passwords for photofile.ru

The openly gay mayor of Palm Springs, Calif., said in an opinion piece published Friday that he was only showing “Christian courtesy” in welcoming an “ex-gay” group to his city Saturday, CBS News reported.

Mayor Ron Oden is catching hell from gay activists. But it seems to me that mayors are usually welcoming to most anyone who comes to town spending money.passwords for photofile.ru

ADDED —passwords for photofile.ru

It also seems to me that despite our insistence on the tolerance of others — even to the point of changing millennia-old tradition — we gays and lesbians are ourselves often intolerant. The notion of “ex-gays” strikes me as absurd. But it also strikes me as not my business. passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Gay+newspasswords for photofile.ru

Brace for it: “It’s Nov. 8, the day after the election. The costliest and nastiest campaign for control of the House in history is …. not yet over.”passwords for photofile.ru

If on election night one party or the other has a two or three seat majority — don’t rule out the possibility! — we can expect litigation everywhere the vote was close. We can also expect the political headhunters to be out in force looking for party switchers.passwords for photofile.ru

I’m increasingly persuaded that no Democratic “wave” is coming, i.e. the Democrats won’t win thirty or forty or fifty Republican-held seats. But I’m also increasingly persuaded that the GOP will come perilously close to dropping the fifteen seats that will give Democrats control. It’s going to be tight!*passwords for photofile.ru

If I turn out to be wrong about this, I will quit prognosticating. I will have proven myself to be bad at it!passwords for photofile.ru

(*By the way, if you’re the political junkie that I am, tell your boss now that you need off on Wednesday, November 8. We’re going to be up late Tuesday night.)passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: 2006+electionspasswords for photofile.ru

Associated Press: “The Army is stretched so thin by the war in Iraq that it is again extending the combat tours of thousands of soldiers beyond the promised 12 months — the second such move since August.”passwords for photofile.ru

Also, the Army will reportedly need another $66 billion to “repair or replace all the equipment torn up in Iraq.” That’s in addition to the more than $318 billion the war has cost so far.passwords for photofile.ru

Says U.S. Sen Arlen Specter, R-PA: “My instinct is once the (November) election is over there will be a lot more hard thinking about what to do about Iraq and a lot more candid observations about it.” passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Iraq, US+Armypasswords for photofile.ru

“The Rev. Jerry Falwell acknowledged on Sunday saying that if Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democrats’ presidential nominee in 2008, it would motivate conservative evangelical Christians to oppose her more than if the devil himself were running.” (Link)passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Hillary+Clinton, Jerry+Falwellpasswords for photofile.ru

If, as I did, you missed this Los Angeles Times essay by liberal Sam Harris when it published Monday, don’t miss it now. Here’s a sample:passwords for photofile.ru

A cult of death is forming in the Muslim world — for reasons that are perfectly explicable in terms of the Islamic doctrines of martyrdom and jihad. The truth is that we are not fighting a “war on terror.” We are fighting a pestilential theology and a longing for paradise.

[…]

We are entering an age of unchecked nuclear proliferation and, it seems likely, nuclear terrorism. There is, therefore, no future in which aspiring martyrs will make good neighbors for us. Unless liberals realize that there are tens of millions of people in the Muslim world who are far scarier than Dick Cheney, they will be unable to protect civilization from its genuine enemies.

Given the American people’s appetite for economic populism, and the incompetence, corruption and unprincipledness of the extant Republican regimen, liberal Democrats could electorally obliterate the GOP were they all as clear-headed on national security as Sam Harris is. But they hate Bush more than they hate the enemy, and more than they love their country.passwords for photofile.ru

ADDED —passwords for photofile.ru

Case in point: “Yesterday, former Senator Gary Hart reminded us of why Democrats have managed to lose three straight elections that they should have won …”passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Liberals, liberalism, national+securitypasswords for photofile.ru

Although I’ve included Connecticut 5 in the twenty-four U.S. House districts worth watching, the Republican incumbent there, Nancy Johnson, is out of danger. Here’s one of the reasons why. I think the political pros call it “high production value.”passwords for photofile.ru

ADDED II —passwords for photofile.ru

As of this update (9:15 p.m. CST), Rep. Johnson’s site is still offline. But I just remembered that before it went offline, I downloaded the video I want you to see. And now I’ve uploaded it to my site. You can watch it here. (Link launches your media player.)passwords for photofile.ru

ADDED —passwords for photofile.ru

As Zendo Deb notes in a comment below, Johnson’s website is down as of roughly 2 p.m. CST today.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Nancy+Johnson, Connecticut, 2006+electionspasswords for photofile.ru

Associated Press: “Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist on Sunday said he wants a Senate vote soon on an immigration bill focusing primarily on border security, but acknowledged that quick passage is doubtful.”passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Immigration, border+securitypasswords for photofile.ru

Run time: 9:42. Theme music by Shockwave Sound.

This week:passwords for photofile.ru

Pennsylvania 7
PVI: Democrat +4
GOP nominee: Curt Weldon, incumbent
Democratic nominee: Joseph Sestak
Projected Republican hold
See popup map of Pennsylvania 7
passwords for photofile.ru

New Mexico 1
PVI: Democrat +2
GOP nominee: Heather Wilson, incumbent
Democratic nominee: Patricia Madrid
Projected Republican hold
See popup map of New Mexico 1
passwords for photofile.ru

Minnesota 6
Open Republican seat
PVI: Republican +5
GOP nominee: Michele Bachmann
Democratic nominee: Patty Wetterling
Projected Republican hold
See popup map of Minnesota 6
passwords for photofile.ru

Ohio 15
PVI: Republican +1
GOP nominee: Deborah Pryce, incumbent
Democratic nominee: Mary Jo Kilroy
Toss-up
See popup map of Ohio 15
passwords for photofile.ru

Kentucky 4
PVI: Republican +12
GOP nominee: Geoff Davis, incumbent
Democratic nominee: Ken Lucas
Toss-up
See popup map of Kentucky 4
passwords for photofile.ru

Virginia 2
PVI: Republican +6
GOP nominee: Thelma Drake, incumbent
Democratic nominee: Philip Kellman
Toss-up
See popup map of Virginia 2
passwords for photofile.ru

Last week (projections unchanged):passwords for photofile.ru

Texas 22
Indiana 2
Indiana 8
Indiana 9
Connecticut 2
Arizona 8
passwords for photofile.ru

Next week:passwords for photofile.ru

Colorado 7
Iowa 1
North Carolina 11
Illinois 6
Florida 22
Ohio 15
passwords for photofile.ru

So far, 12 races projected. 6 Democratic pick-ups. 3 Republican holds. 3 toss-ups. Races yet to be projected: 12.passwords for photofile.ru

Caveat: in assessing poll data, I don’t look at the spread between the incumbent and the challenger. I look at where the incumbent is relative to the 50% mark. To understand why, see this.passwords for photofile.ru

For an explanation of Charlie Cook’s Partisan Voter Index (PVI), see this.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: 2006+elections, Congress, Democrats, Republicans, Pennsylvania, New+Mexico, Minnesota, Ohio, Kentucky, Virginiapasswords for photofile.ru

Red Hot Chili Peppers: the sounds of torture?passwords for photofile.ru

More:passwords for photofile.ru

The Republican bill provides legal protection for the CIA program by precisely defining and enumerating atrocities widely accepted as war crimes — including torture, rape, biological experiments, and cruel and inhuman treatment.

For acts that do not rise to the level of a war crime but may test the bounds of the Geneva Conventions, the GOP bill allows the president to make the call.

Backstory: “The CIA reportedly used the music of the Red Hot Chili Peppers to torture a confession out of an al-Qaida terrorist.”passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: CIA, terrorist+interrogation, Republicans, general+American+nutterypasswords for photofile.ru

U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-PA, waves goodbye. He’ll leave the Senate in January.passwords for photofile.ru

According to the latest survey from Rasmussen Reports, Sen. Rick Santorum, R-PA, has the support of only 39% of voters in his bid for re-election. I believe it. (See this.)passwords for photofile.ru

Although I’m no fan of his, I had thought Santorum might rally. He hasn’t. The “incumbent rule” applies here, and that means Santorum is toast. passwords for photofile.ru

Unless Democrat Bob Casey decides to masturbate in public or do something else as equally shocking, he’ll win in November. Mark the Senate seat from Pennsylvania as a Democratic pick-up.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Pennsylvania, Rick+Santorum, 2006+electionspasswords for photofile.ru

Michael Steele, center: Republican senator from Maryland?passwords for photofile.ru

A Republican win in Maryland would make it virtually impossible for the Democrats to take control of the Senate. passwords for photofile.ru

Steele’s website is here.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Maryland, Michael+Steele, US+Senate, 2006+electionspasswords for photofile.ru

Via Yahoo News: “The Army is ending its best recruiting year since 1997 and expecting similar success in 2007, despite the weight of grim war news from Iraq, Army Secretary Francis Harvey said Thursday.”passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: US+Armypasswords for photofile.ru

Via MSNBC: “The Bush administration asked an appeals court Thursday to step in immediately and dismiss a lawsuit over the government’s warrantless eavesdropping program, calling a lower judge’s ruling dangerous and wrong.”passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Terrorist+surveillance+programpasswords for photofile.ru

This report by the Associated Press begins: “A national black Republican group is running a radio advertisement accusing Democrats of starting the Ku Klux Klan and saying the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. was a Republican …”passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Black+Republicanspasswords for photofile.ru

According to the editors of National Review, “Without action by Congress to state plainly what is and is not permissible, intelligence agents will have to fear being sued or prosecuted for war crimes just for doing their jobs. This is not a hypothetical concern; anxious agents are already buying litigation insurance. Soon, our efforts to cull intelligence from detainees will shut down entirely (that is, if they haven’t already).”passwords for photofile.ru

Meanwhile, without any apparent sense of irony, the editors of the Boston Hearld write: “Powell and McCain also raised concerns that any reinterpretation of Common Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions could endanger U.S. soldiers who might be captured.” As things stand now, U.S. soldiers captured by al Qaeda are not in any danger …passwords for photofile.ru

ADDED —passwords for photofile.ru

Associated Press: “The Bush administration and Senate Republicans announced agreement Thursday on terms for the interrogation and trial of suspects in the war on terror.”passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Detainee+interrogation, Congress, John+ McCainpasswords for photofile.ru

“President Bush’s embattled anti-terrorism plans got a boost Wednesday when a wiretap bill was revised and a Senate Republican leader said he was hopeful a deal was near on treatment of detainees,” according to the Associated Press; however, “[p]rospects for the two critical pieces of legislation remained unclear …”passwords for photofile.ru

• In Hamdan, the U.S. Supreme Court decided that Common Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions applies to the conflict with al Qaeda.passwords for photofile.ru

• Article 3 prohibits “outrages upon personal dignity, in particular, humiliating and degrading treatment …”passwords for photofile.ru

• An al Qaeda detainee might claim, inter alia, that interrogation by a woman is humiliating and degrading. passwords for photofile.ru

• President Bush wants Congress to “make explicit that by following the standards of the Detainee Treatment Act our personnel are fulfilling America’s obligations under Common Article Three of the Geneva Conventions,” and to preclude captured terrorists from using the Geneva Conventions as a basis for suing U.S. personnel in our courts.passwords for photofile.ru

• The Administration has indicated it will close the CIA’s detainee interrogation program if Congress does not set explicit standards for American interrogators. In a letter to employees of the CIA, director Michael Hayden wrote: “At the end of the day, the director — any director — of the CIA must be confident that what he has asked an agency officer to do under this program is lawful.”passwords for photofile.ru

• For political reasons, the Democrats have decided to stay on the sidelines and leave this fight to Republicans.passwords for photofile.ru

• The phone numbers for your senators are here.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Detainee+interrogation, CIA, Congress, Republicanspasswords for photofile.ru

A USA Today/Gallup poll shows “likely voters evenly divided between Democratic and Republican candidates for Congress, 48%-48%.” The Democrats still maintain a 51-42 lead among registered voters. But as I’ve argued before, likely voters are the only subset of voters worth caring about.passwords for photofile.ru

On Saturday, I began reviewing — and projecting the results of — twenty-four U.S. House races worth watching. A reader’s comment here got me to thinking about the “incumbent rule.”passwords for photofile.ru

Let’s say you have a congressional race where the polling data look like this:passwords for photofile.ru

John Doe, incumbent: 45%
Jane Smith, challenger: 47%
Undecideds: 8%
passwords for photofile.ru

On the surface, the race looks like a toss-up, doesn’t it? But it’s not a toss-up. Or at least the incumbent rule suggests it’s not a toss-up.passwords for photofile.ru

The incumbent rule posits that most voters who claim to be undecided aren’t really ambivalent. They have in fact decided to vote against the incumbent, whom they usually know well by virtue of his tenure in office. What they haven’t decided yet is whether the challenger is an acceptable alternative. passwords for photofile.ru

Usually, most undecided voters end up deciding that the challenger is an acceptable alternative and they vote for her. Consequently, we might expect the numbers above to break out like this on election day:passwords for photofile.ru

John Doe, incumbent: 47%
Jane Smith, challenger: 53%
passwords for photofile.ru

In any race where an incumbent is up for re-election, don’t look at the polling spread between the incumbent and the challenger. Look instead at how close — or how far — the incumbent is from the 50% mark. The spread here is only four points, but these pre-election numbers spell doom for Mr. Doe:passwords for photofile.ru

John Doe, incumbent: 44%
Jane Smith, challenger: 48%
Undecideds: 8%
passwords for photofile.ru

Are polling data always accurate? No. Is the incumbent rule always operational? No. Just this month, pre-election polling showed Steve Laffey winning the Rhode Island GOP primary over incumbent Lincoln Chafee. But it was Chafee, and not Laffey, who prevailed on election day. The pollsters had not accounted for crossover voting by Democrats who re-registered as independents and voted for Mr. Chafee. (In Rhode Island, independents can vote in either party’s primary.)passwords for photofile.ru

But if a poll is methodologically sound, we should be mindful of the incumbent rule when assessing the poll’s findings. More often than not, the incumbent rule works.passwords for photofile.ru

International drug cartels have made crystal methamphetamine “so abundant that distributors now commonly ‘front’ up to 2 pounds of ice to street dealers on credit,” MSNBC reports.passwords for photofile.ru

Liberal hawk Jonathan Chait, in an article on the Democratic Party’s internal divisions over foreign policy, says the war in Iraq wasn’t doomed from the beginning. It was doomed by the Bush Administration’s incompetence:passwords for photofile.ru

… the more we learn about the war’s conduct, the more we learn that the administration didn’t just make the normal sorts of mistakes that inevitably occur in wartime; it was almost criminally negligent. The Bush administration literally refused to do any planning for the occupation. They invaded before all the available troops were in place, staffed the Coalition Provisional Authority with underqualified hacks vetted solely on the basis of ideological loyalty and rashly disbanded the Iraqi army, which could have provided some early order.

One might counter that none of this was really decisive because Iraq is so deeply riven with sectarian feuds that brutal fighting between Sunnis and Shiites was inevitable. But this misunderstands a lot about human behavior. When the authority of government dissolves, people retreat to the safety of tribal solidarity, and under such conditions they can do savage things of which they never thought themselves capable. Once the expectation of chaos sets in, it can spiral out of control. (Link)

Afraid that any criticism from them would undermine the whole enterprise, congressional Republicans have been mute on the Administration’s inept prosecution of the war in Iraq. (Does any Republican believe the president’s claim that our generals couldn’t do with more troops? Aren’t Republicans the party of “overwhelming force”?) Meanwhile, disdainful of the exercise of American power, congressional Democrats — especially the most liberal of them — have mostly confined themselves to denying the war’s legitimacy. This has left the Administration’s management of the war largely unexamined, and unquestioned.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: War+in+Iraq, Iraq, Bush, Democrats, Republicanspasswords for photofile.ru

Charles Johnson on the Pope’s non-apology apology: passwords for photofile.ru

It won’t work. Islamists can tell the difference between diplomatic words and true surrender, and they want the Pope to utterly abase himself. It would be far better to stand up, and speak truth about the Muslim world’s insane reaction to his speech.

In his remarks yesterday, Glenn Reynolds spoke for many of us: “Frankly, I’m pretty tired of ‘Muslim rage.’” passwords for photofile.ru

Can you even imagine the coverage from Western media if Christians (or Jews!) behaved like this?passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Pope+Benedictpasswords for photofile.ru

“Conservatives are deeply upset with the Bush administration and the GOP Congress about the lack of fiscal discipline, corruption in the ranks, immigration, and a host of other subjects,” write Larry Sabato and David Wasserman. “A dangerous thesis has taken hold among many in the GOP: that it might be better to lose the ‘06 election and re-group. In American history, when a faction in the majority party decides the party is tired and could benefit from some time in the wilderness, the voters usually oblige.” passwords for photofile.ru

But intraparty feuding isn’t limited to Republicans: “Strategically, Howard Dean’s DNC and the leaders of the party’s congressional campaign committees seem to be operating on different planets, with the former entity reluctant to sacrifice any territory for the sake of targeting the most competitive races — the latter entity’s raison d’etre. All of a sudden, Election Day is less than two months away, and many Democrats genuinely worry that this tabloid-worthy organizational feuding will severely hinder the party’s chances of fully capitalizing on the angry storm of anti-GOP resentment.” [Emphasis added.] (Link)passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: 2006+elections, Democrats, Republicanspasswords for photofile.ru

Former Congressman Joe Scarborough, R-FL, says GOP incumbents should save themselves by throwing Mr. Bush under the bus: passwords for photofile.ru

Being a faithful follower of Brother Bush has long been synonymous with loving Jesus, supporting the troops and taking a stand against sodomy. But no more. Many of the conservatives who put Ronald Reagan and Newt Gingrich in power are counting the days until Bush goes to Crawford for good. Some mutter that their leader’s governing style looks more like Jimmy Carter’s every day — and among that crowd, there is no harsher insult.

Technorati tags: Bush, Congress, 2006+electionspasswords for photofile.ru

George F. Will: “In this autumn of their discontent, Republicans tremble as November nears. But now comes yet another book by a gloomy liberal anticipating permanent Republican dominance.” passwords for photofile.ru

Not unrelatedly, “Over the past three decades, conservatives have been procreating more than liberals — continuing to seed the future with their genes by filling bassinets coast to coast with tiny Future Republicans of America,” according to Vicki Haddock in the San Francisco Chronicle. James Taranto long ago dubbed this the “Roe effect.”passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Conservatives, Republicans, Red+Americapasswords for photofile.ru

“Despite a voter backlash against the GOP, political handicappers say it’s nearly impossible for Democrats to win the Senate this fall,” the New York Daily News reports.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: 2006+elections, Senate, Democratspasswords for photofile.ru

(Correction: In the audioblog, I refer to U.S. Rep. Jim Kolbe, R-AZ, as the only openly gay representative in Congress. That is, of course, wrong. I meant to say that Rep. Kolbe is the only openly gay Republican in Congress.)

Terms used in this audioblog:passwords for photofile.ru

Partisan Voter Index (PVI). Introduced by the Cook Political Report, PVI gauges a district’s competitiveness: passwords for photofile.ru

A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2.3, for example, means that in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, that district performed an average of 2.3 points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+3.8 means the district performed more Republican than the nation. (Link)

U.S. House races reviewed in this audioblog:passwords for photofile.ru

Texas 22
Vacant Republican seat
PVI: Republican +15
GOP nominee: None
Democratic nominee: Nick Lampson
Projected Democratic pick-up
See popup map of Texas 22passwords for photofile.ru

Indiana 2
PVI: Republican +4
GOP nominee: Chris Chocola, incumbent
Democratic nominee: Joe Donnelly
Projected Democratic pick-up
See popup map of Indiana 2passwords for photofile.ru

Indiana 8
PVI: Republican +9
GOP nominee: John Hostettler, incumbent
Democratic nominee: Brad Ellsworth
Projected Democratic pick-up
See popup map of Indiana 8passwords for photofile.ru

Indiana 9
PVI: Republican +7
GOP nominee: Mike Sodrel, incumbent
Democratic nominee: Baron Hill
Projected Democratic pick-up
See popup map of Indiana 9passwords for photofile.ru

Connecticut 2
PVI: Democrat +8
GOP nominee: Rob Simmons, incumbent
Democratic nominee: Joe Courtney
Projected Democratic pick-up
See popup map of Connecticut 2passwords for photofile.ru

Arizona 8
Incumbent Republican retiring
PVI: Republican +1
GOP nominee: Randy Graf
Democratic nominee: Gabrielle Giffords
Projected Democratic pick-up
See popup map of Arizona 8passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: 2006+elections, Congress, Democrats, Republicans, Texas, Indiana, Connecticut, Arizonapasswords for photofile.ru

Umm, hmm:

[Sen. Lincoln] Chafee won last night’s primary with 54% of the vote over Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey.  Club for Growth poured $1 million into Laffey’s campaign in a vicious effort to distort Senator Chafee’s record and divide the Republican Party.  “This was a hugely important election.  A Laffey victory would’ve emboldened special interest groups to target other mainstream Republicans across America,” said Sammon.passwords for photofile.ru

Say you’re a Republican gay rights organization that backed Lincoln Chafee in Tuesday’s Rhode Island GOP primary. It’s okay to gloat over your victory, yes? But why take a gratuitous swipe at Club for Growth, an organization well within the Republican mainstream, one that focuses on fiscal and economic policy, not social issues, and one with whom you might someday make common cause?passwords for photofile.ru

If you’ve ever wondered why many Republicans — including a not insignificant number of gay Republicans — look at Log Cabin and snicker, wonder no more. LCR has all the political acumen God gave to a tree stump.passwords for photofile.ru

More at Gay Patriot and Independent Gay Forum.passwords for photofile.ru

(Disclosure: I’m a member of Club for Growth. I’m not a member of Log Cabin.)passwords for photofile.ru

ADDED —passwords for photofile.ru

By the way, if we’re going to talk about things that “divide the Republican Party,” the push for gay rights produces heated debate in Republican circles. But there’s no debate, at least not among rank and file Republicans, about restoring the GOP’s commitment to fiscal probity.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Log+Cabin+Republicans, Club+for+Growthpasswords for photofile.ru

Associated Press:passwords for photofile.ru

The Supreme Court will post transcripts of oral arguments on its Web site the same day they occur, beginning in October.

The change, long desired by court watchers, comes as Chief Justice John Roberts begins his second term at the head of the court.

If you’d like to bookmark it, the U.S. Supreme Court’s Web site is here.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: US+Supreme+Courtpasswords for photofile.ru

HOUSE WATCH: Watching the twenty-four U.S. House races worth watchingpasswords for photofile.ru

• Indiana 2 — Democrat Joe Donnelly leads GOP incumbent Chris Chocola 52-40, according to Constituent Dynamics.

• Indiana 8 — GOP incumbent John Hostettler trails Democrat Brad Ellsworth, 45-51, Constituent Dynamics reports.passwords for photofile.ru

• Indiana 9 — A poll of 400 likely voters puts Democrat Baron P. Hill ahead of GOP incumbent Mike Sodrel, 46-40. Fourteen percent are undecided.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: 2006+elections, Congress, Republicans, Democrats, Indianapasswords for photofile.ru

James Pinkerton:passwords for photofile.ru

And that’s why Republicans may do better than many pundits expect. Blogger Rich Galen observed Tuesday night that a change in midterm-election handicapping has taken place in the last 10 days: Reporters and analysts have come to “a vague sense of wondering whether the Democratic march to the speaker’s office might have taken a wrong turn somewhere.” (Link)

Primary election results from Rhode Island and Maryland.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: 2006+elections, Rhode+Island, Marylandpasswords for photofile.ru

ADDED —passwords for photofile.ru

I forgot to say in the audioblog that Sen. Chafee was almost certainly the beneficiary of crossover voting. In the last six months, some 13,000 Rhode Island Democrats re-registered as independents, making them eligible to vote in the Republican Primary. Chafee won by 4,000 votes out of 62,000 cast.passwords for photofile.ru

Were I a resident of Rhode Island, I would have voted for Steve Laffey. But I admit he could not have won a general election.passwords for photofile.ru

ADDED II —passwords for photofile.ru

Time:passwords for photofile.ru

Republicans should be thrilled Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee won his primary Tuesday — and not just because he likely saved them a Senate seat.

[…]

The Chafee win also guarantees an even tighter campaign in the fall, which won’t help Democrats. Needing to win six seats to capture the Senate, Democrats were rooting for Laffey, which would have meant they could save and concentrate their campaign funds on key races in Tennessee, Virginia and Ohio. Now, Democrats will have to work aggressively and spend heavily to defeat Chafee, who has such a liberal record on issues like the environment that he’s almost assured of wooing some Democratic voters. [Emphasis added.]

ADDED III —passwords for photofile.ru

Hugh Hewitt is having none of it. Chafee, Hewitt says, should be tossed under the political bus, even, apparently, if it means giving the Senate to the Democrats: “The Rhode Island GOP voters who voted for Steve Laffey would be well advised to vote for the Democratic nominee in November.”passwords for photofile.ru

UPDATE VII (11:35 p.m. EST) —passwords for photofile.ru

In Maryland, with 38% of precincts reporting:passwords for photofile.ru

Ben Cardin: 47%
• Kweisi Mfume: 37%passwords for photofile.ru

UPDATE VI (11:25 p.m. EST) —passwords for photofile.ru

In Maryland, with 34% of precincts reporting:passwords for photofile.ru

• Ben Cardin: 46%
• Kweisi Mfume: 37%passwords for photofile.ru

UPDATE V (11:00 p.m. EST) —passwords for photofile.ru

In Maryland, with 24% of precincts reporting:passwords for photofile.ru

• Ben Cardin: 44%
• Kweisi Mfume: 37%passwords for photofile.ru

UPDATE IV (10:45 p.m. EST) — passwords for photofile.ru

In Maryland, with 18% of precincts reporting:passwords for photofile.ru

• Ben Cardin: 44%
• Kweisi Mfume: 34%passwords for photofile.ru

UPDATE III (10:40 p.m. EST) —passwords for photofile.ru

In Rhode Island, with 40% of precincts reporting:passwords for photofile.ru

Lincoln Chafee: 54%
• Stephen Laffey: 46%passwords for photofile.ru

UPDATE II (10:25 p.m. EST) —passwords for photofile.ru

In Rhode Island, with 22% of the precincts reporting:passwords for photofile.ru

• Lincoln Chafee: 54%
• Stephen Laffey: 46%passwords for photofile.ru

In Maryland, with 10% of the precincts reporting:passwords for photofile.ru

• Ben Cardin: 40%
• Kweisi Mfume: 39%passwords for photofile.ru

UPDATE —passwords for photofile.ru

Polls in Rhode Island are open until 9 p.m. And in Maryland, where voting was scheduled to end at 8 p.m., two judges — one in Montgomery County and another in Baltimore — have ordered polls in their jurisdictions to remain open until 9.passwords for photofile.ru

Two primary races are worth watching tonight.passwords for photofile.ru

• In Maryland, Ben Cardin squares off against Kweisi Mfume for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. (The seat is now held by Democrat Paul Sarbanes; he’s retiring.) The winner will face black Republican Michael Steele.passwords for photofile.ru

If you’re a Republican, you want Cardin to win. Here’s why.passwords for photofile.ru

• In Rhode Island, incumbent Lincoln Chafee (ACU rating: 41) battles Cranston mayor and Club for Growth candidate Steve Laffey for the GOP’s U.S. Senate nomination.passwords for photofile.ru

Despite his relatively liberal voting record, Republican establishmentarians are backing Chafee. They fear Laffey is too conservative to win a general election.passwords for photofile.ru

Cardin and Laffey are the presumptive favorites in their respective primaries.passwords for photofile.ru

Updates later.passwords for photofile.ru

Did you happen to see (and hear) the three audio blog tests that were up earlier? Those were not intended for publication. I didn’t even realize they were up until I looked at the site today. And since I was just ass clowning when I made them, it’s a bit embarrassing to know they saw the light of day. passwords for photofile.ru

Moral of the story: if you’re running a test on Hipcast, don’t hit “publish”!passwords for photofile.ru

Assuming I can figure out how to do it properly, I do plan to have up an actual audio post next Saturday; I’ll review the twenty-four U.S. House districts where the GOP is at greatest risk of getting its ass handed to it come November.passwords for photofile.ru

ADDED —passwords for photofile.ru

Yeah! Here’s a real test in which I think I’ve finally figured this stuff out. You can listen to me jabber on for a minute, and you can enjoy a bit of Rascal Flatts. Umm, hmm, good.passwords for photofile.ru

ADDED II —passwords for photofile.ru

For those of you who might be interested in doing your own podcast, here’s the best podcasting software I’ve found yet: Propaganda at makepropaganda.com. So far, it’s been extremely easy to use; the online video tutorial is excellent. (The audio entry above was created using Podcast Station, which works fine once you figure it out; the user interface is not intuitive.)passwords for photofile.ru

Republican Senate candidate Michael Steele has released a powerful TV ad aimed at getting black Democrats to cross over and vote for him. Watch.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Maryland, US+Senate, Michael+Steelepasswords for photofile.ru

Historian Victor Davis Hanson on the limits of Western forbearance: passwords for photofile.ru

But over the long duration of history, these are cyclical and often transitory phenomena. It is not etched in stone that oil will always be the world’s fuel or that its price will never return to $30 a barrel. Take such profits and strategic importance away from the Middle East, and much of its weaponry, and jihadist zeal, will disappear. And if there is another attack of the caliber of 9/11, Western moral restraint on massive retribution against sponsor states will vanish.

Israel may well have been confused by mobile Katyushas and underground Hezbollah bunkers; but should Syria or Hezbollah send a missile laden with WMD at Tel Aviv, the jihadists and their patrons will quickly learn that there is no defense against an Israeli Western-style response.

Technorati tags: The+Westpasswords for photofile.ru

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Houston Chronicle:passwords for photofile.ru

The United States must reduce the demand for cocaine and other illegal drugs at home if it expects Mexico to succeed in defeating the drug cartels, President-elect Felipe Calderon said Thursday.

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[…]passwords for photofile.ru

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Turf wars for the lucrative smuggling routes to U.S. cities have left a record 1,500 people dead in Mexico this year. Victims include five men whose decapitated heads were dumped in a night club in Michoacan state Wednesday.

“It’s not just about fighting the supply,” Calderon told foreign journalists. “It’s fundamental that the United States work to reduce the demand, because otherwise this will never stop.” [Emphasis added.] (Link)

Correct. And since our Government cannot reduce the demand for drugs, at least not by decree, it will never stop.

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… we often end up taking vengeance on those who’ve harmed nobody but themselves. Why?

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Occasionally, you’ll hear this rejoinder: “Well, the laws against murder don’t stop murder. Should we repeal those laws, too?” This question assumes that the purpose of the law is to prevent violent crime. Manifestly, our laws do not prevent crime. But that’s not their purpose. Their purpose is to provide people with formal notice of conduct that will get them imprisoned or executed. Society can’t stop a man from harming others. But it can take vengeance on him. (If you’d prefer to stop the taking of your life, rather than have society posthumously avenge you, buy a gun.)

The ostensible purpose of the war on drugs is to halt, or at least significantly reduce, drug consumption. But this the law cannot do. (Despite draconian laws against drug consumption, the drug trade is “booming.”) Consequently, we often end up taking vengeance on those who’ve harmed nobody but themselves. Why?passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: War+on+drugspasswords for photofile.ru

A Pennsylvania blogger reports that according to an internal poll by the Casey campaign, U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum is “within the margin of error, trailing narrowly at 47-44.”passwords for photofile.ru

If a Democratic internal has Santorum back by only three, it probably means he’s ahead.passwords for photofile.ru

We are, I think, going to see in the 2006 congressional elections a replay of what we saw in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections: a political humdinger in which one side prevails narrowly.passwords for photofile.ru

Meanwhile, pollster Charlie Cook says that “if the political climate remains as it is today — a very big “if” — Republicans will likely lose the House …”

Myself, having looked closely at numbers and analysis from twenty-four congressional districts where Republicans are vulnerable, I now project the GOP will lose at least nine seats and as many as nineteen. If the GOP loses fifteen seats, it will lose its majority.passwords for photofile.ru

Relatedly, The Blogging Caesar now projects House Republicans to drop ten seats. passwords for photofile.ru

We are, I think, going to see in the 2006 congressional elections a replay of what we saw in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections: a political humdinger in which one side prevails narrowly.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Santorum, 2006+elections, Republicans, US+Housepasswords for photofile.ru

Today is the day in which the Incumbent Protection Act kicked in and silenced the airing of any broadcast advertising that mentions a sitting member of Congress.passwords for photofile.ru

Jonathan at GOP Bloggers puts it plainly:passwords for photofile.ru

Think about it again: it is a crime, punishable under the law, to air an advertisement that criticizes a member of Congress during election season.

The law must change. And we must raise hell until it does.passwords for photofile.ru

In the meantime, I join other bloggers in making this offer: between now and Election Day, I will publish any issue ad from any reputable political advocacy group. And I don’t care about your ideology. You can be to the left of Stalin. Or you can be against gay marriage. The only requirement is that your ad at least mention, and preferably criticize, a member of Congress by name.passwords for photofile.ru

Send me the media file. I’ll put it up, on the house.passwords for photofile.ru

If we submit to being told that we cannot criticize the officials of our Government, we can pack it in.passwords for photofile.ru

(Here, by the way, is a list of the handful of Republicans who joined the Democrats in telling us to shut up our mouths.) passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: McCain-Feingold, censorshippasswords for photofile.ru

I’m a premium content subscriber over at Election Projection.* So I guess I can pass this on without getting in trouble. (Scott, if I’m not supposed to relate information behind the “firewall,” tell me.)passwords for photofile.ru

Tom Kean Jr.: Republican senator from New Jersey?passwords for photofile.ru

Election Projection has just changed the rating for the New Jersey Senate race from “weak Democratic hold” to “weak Republican gain.” If so — and Scott says he expects the race to revert before Election Day — this would make it virtually impossible for Democrats to win a Senate majority. (And it wouldn’t be consistent with a Democratic wave for the GOP to gain a Senate seat in a blue state.)

Relatedly, I heard Sen. Rick Santorum this morning on Bill Bennett’s radio show “Morning in America.” Sen. Santorum is in the hottest and most closely watched Senate race in the Nation. And although I’m no fan of his — he once compared gay sex to man on dog sex — I have to give the guy credit: he was on fire. Charming. Passionate. Articulate. Thoughtful. It was a rare performance by a politician. He very nearly had me convinced to make a contribution to his campaign, and that’s not an easy sell. (Listen for yourself, here.)passwords for photofile.ru

U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-PA: don’t write him off yet.passwords for photofile.ru

The conventional wisdom is that Santorum is finished. But having heard him this morning, I think I’ll hold judgment in abeyance.

(*If you’re not a subscriber to Election Projection, you really should be. “In 2004, Election Projection was one of the most accurate predictors of the presidential race between George W. Bush and John Kerry. Using a home-grown formula, The Blogging Caesar projected the eventual outcome to within 3 electoral votes, correctly predicting 48 of 50 states.” Subscribe here.)passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: 2006+elections, New+Jersey+Senate+racepasswords for photofile.ru

New York Times:passwords for photofile.ru

WASHINGTON — President Bush said today that 14 suspected terrorists held in secret locations by the C.I.A., including some who were deeply involved in the Sept. 11 attacks and other notorious assaults on Americans, are being transferred to the Guantánamo Bay naval base in Cuba to stand trial.

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Mr. Bush said in a speech at the White House that he welcomed the transfers as a way to provide a measure of justice for relatives of the nearly 3,000 people who died in the attacks five years ago next Monday. “They should have to wait no longer,” he said.

The president also urged Congress to approve legislation he was proposing that would authorize the use of military commissions to try the Guantánamo detainees. The legislation is aimed at addressing a United States Supreme Court ruling in June that tribunals set up by the Bush administration could not be used because Congress had not approved them. [Emphasis added.] (Link)

Mario Loyola at The Corner:passwords for photofile.ru

The President just pulled one of the best maneuvers of his entire presidency. By transferring most major Al Qaeda terrorists to Guantanamo, and simultaneously sending Congress a bill to rescue the Military Commissions from the Supreme Court’s ruling [in] Hamdan v. Rumsfeld, the President spectacularly ambushed the Democrats on terrain they fondly thought their own. Now Democrats who oppose (and who have vociferously opposed) the Military Commissions will in effect be opposing the prosecution of the terrorists who planned and launched the attacks of September 11 for war crimes.

And if that were not enough, the President also frontally attacked the Hamdan ruling’s potentially chilling effect on CIA extraordinary interrogation techniques, by arguing that Common Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions is too vague, and asking Congress to define clearly the criminal law limiting the scope of permissible interrogation.

Taken as a whole, the President’s maneuver today turned the political tables completely around. He stole the terms of debate from the Democrats, and rewrote them, all in a single speech. It will be delightful to watch in coming days and hours as bewildered Democrats try to understand what just hit them, and then sort through the rubble of their anti-Bush national security strategy to see what, if anything, remains. [Emphasis added.]

Oak Leaf at Polipundit:passwords for photofile.ru

Does anyone want these dregs of humanity to remain in secret CIA custody forever? Of course not!!! I want them shot or hung, after a jury of my peers finds them guilty!!

This is simply Step One In The Path To A Hanging. [Emphasis in original.]

Khalid Sheik Mohammed, mastermind of the September 11 attacks, was among those transferred. He’s the “piece of filth” to whom Allahpundit refers:passwords for photofile.ru

Actually, this is pretty shrewd. Superficially, Bush gets to come clean about the CIA prisons and act benevolent in granting this piece of filth POW status in one fell swoop, but what he’s really after is putting public pressure on Congress to approve military tribunals, not full courts-martial, for detainees. It’ll be a lot harder for the House and Senate to grant full due process protection to Al Qaeda prisoners now that one of the potential beneficiaries is the mastermind of 9/11 himself. [Emphasis added.]

In Hamdan, 548 U.S. __ (2006), the U.S. Supreme Court invited the president to seek express congressional authorization to try war on terror suspects in military tribunals.¹ The president today accepted the Court’s invitation, and he did so cleverly. passwords for photofile.ru

Although senators are still wrangling over the exact rules to govern the tribunals, watch for a vote next week.passwords for photofile.ru

¹ See Justice Breyer’s concurring opinion, slip op at 82: “… Congress has denied the President the legislative authority to create military commissions of the kind at issue here. Nothing prevents the President from returning to Congress to seek the authority he believes necessary.”passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Bush, CIA, Guantanamo, military+tribunals, Congresspasswords for photofile.ru

From the man who wrote the majority-winning Contract With America:passwords for photofile.ru

A Republican majority in the House that spent the next two months on these eleven issues would go a long way toward clarifying the choice between the San Francisco values of Nancy Pelosi and those of a GOP majority.

1. Make English the official language of Government
2. Control the borders
3. Keep God in the Pledge
4. Pass a bill suspending the recent federal district court decision in California outlawing the words “one nation under God” in the Pledge of Allegiance
5. Require a voter ID card
6. Repeal the “death tax” for good
7. Pass a powerful bill returning the constitutional law to the pre-Kelo rules and block the Supreme Court from reviewing it
8. Achieve sustainable energy independence
9. Control spending and balance the budget
10. Tie education funding to teacher accountability
11. Defend America from the irreconcilable wing of Islam

Details here.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: 2006+elections, Republicans, Republican+agenda, Congresspasswords for photofile.ru

Associated Press:passwords for photofile.ru

During the spring protests that brought hundreds of thousands to the streets, Hispanic immigrants chanted a promise and a threat to politicians: “Today We March, Tomorrow We Vote.”

So far, however, there is no indication that such a potent political legacy is developing.

An Associated Press review of voter registration figures from Chicago, Denver, Houston, Atlanta and other major urban areas that saw large rallies shows no sign of a historic new voter boom that could sway elections. [Emphasis added.]

More.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: immigration, illegal+immigration, voter+registrationpasswords for photofile.ru

Radley Balko and Joel Berger in the Wall Street Journal:passwords for photofile.ru

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Criminologist Peter Kraska estimates that the number of SWAT team “call-outs” soared past 40,000 in 2001 (the latest year for which figures are available) from about 3,000 in 1981. The vast majority are employed for routine police work — such as serving drug warrants — not the types of situations for which SWAT teams were originally established. And because drug policing often involves tips from confidential informants — many of whom are drug dealers themselves, or convicts looking for leniency — it’s rife with bad information. As a result, hundreds of innocent families and civilians have been wrongly subjected to violent, forced-entry raids. [Emphasis added.]passwords for photofile.ru

Many Americans say they’re outraged by the NSA’s warrantless surveillance of calls between U.S. citizens and suspected terrorists overseas, even though no one has been prosecuted under that program. (It’s a terrorism prevention operation, not a law enforcement operation.) Why, I wonder, aren’t these same Americans outraged by the warranted paramilitary tactics of local police, who have killed “at least 40 innocent people” in “botched raids”? passwords for photofile.ru

If it’s a police state they’re afraid of, what sounds closer: 1) having your international calls monitored because you’re talking to al Qaeda, or 2) having your door kicked in at 5 a.m. and your head blown off when you haven’t done a goddamn thing? passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: No-knock+raids, forced-entry raids, police, war+on+drugs passwords for photofile.ru

Times of London:passwords for photofile.ru

Threatened by a potentially nuclear-armed Tehran, Israel is preparing for a possible war with both Iran and Syria, according to Israeli political and military sources. passwords for photofile.ru

The conflict with Hezbollah has led to a strategic rethink in Israel. A key conclusion is that too much attention has been paid to Palestinian militants in Gaza and the West Bank instead of the two biggest state sponsors of terrorism in the region, who pose a far greater danger to Israel’s existence, defence insiders say.passwords for photofile.ru

“The challenge from Iran and Syria is now top of the Israeli defence agenda, higher than the Palestinian one,” said an Israeli defence source. Shortly before the war in Lebanon Major-General Eliezer Shkedi, the commander of the air force, was placed in charge of the “Iranian front,” a new position in the Israeli Defence Forces. His job will be to command any future strikes on Iran and Syria.

The Israeli defence establishment believes that Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear programme means war is likely to become unavoidable.

Here.

Technorati tags: Israel, Iran, Syriapasswords for photofile.ru

Ed Rollins was on Fox News yesterday talking about the November elections. (If you don’t know Ed Rollins, he’s one of the Nation’s top Republican political strategists. His service dates back to at least the Reagan years.) Pace the conventional wisdom, Rollins seemed to suggest that the Democrats were more likely to win control of the Senate than of the House. But of the House, he said this: to net the fifteen seats they need to put them in the majority, the Democrats will have to take down some GOP incumbents in Republican-leaning districts. And if that happens, the damn will burst. If voters in fifteen districts are willing to throw out their GOP incumbent, then you can be sure voters elsewhere are also willing to throw out their GOP incumbent.passwords for photofile.ru

In other words, if this is a wave election in which the Democrats can knock off a net of fifteen Republicans, they will probably knock off another ten or fifteen as well. In a wave election, the wave doesn’t just stop at the exact number needed for control (c.f. 1994, when Democrats lost a breathtaking 56 seats). passwords for photofile.ru

If a wave is coming, it will manifest itself in these districts.

A note of helpful corruption: the Incumbent Protection Act kicks in this week. From here to election day, interest groups cannot make any mention whatsoever in their broadcasting advertising of a sitting member of Congress. Most Democrats supported this battering of the First Amendment; accordingly, if on the morning of November 8 they awake to find that they’ve fucked nobody but themselves, they’ll have nobody but themselves to blame.passwords for photofile.ru

Now for some specifics. Bookmark this post and watch the districts below on election night; these are the Democrats’ best pick-up opportunities. If a wave is coming, it will manifest itself in these districts. (Note: I’m not saying a wave would necessarily stop with these races; I’m saying it must start with them.) I’ve arranged the districts from eastern time zone to mountain, which is the direction in which any wave would move:passwords for photofile.ru

• Connecticut 2
• Connecticut 4
• Connecticut 5
• Pennsylvania 6
• Pennsylvania 7
• Pennsylvania 8
• Pennsylvania 10
• Virginia 2
• North Carolina 11
• Florida 22
• Ohio 1
• Ohio 15
• Ohio 18
• Indiana 2
• Indiana 8
• Indiana 9
• Kentucky 4
• Illinois 6
• Minnesota 6
• Iowa 1
• Texas 22
• Colorado 7
• New Mexico 1
• Arizona 8

For more, see the Rothenberg Political Report.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: 2006+elections, Democrats, Republicans, Congress, politicspasswords for photofile.ru

Some bloggers just refuse to take a break.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Blogging, bloggerspasswords for photofile.ru

The American Thinker:passwords for photofile.ru

In all the publicity about their attack on Senator Joe Lieberman, it has gone almost unnoticed that the far left has also targeted some members of the [Congressional] Black Caucus for their support of highly selective Bush administration policies.

[…]

One example of how times have changed is that with the new affluence many black communities have become concerned that black owned business often get sold off at bargain prices when the owners die because the family was not aware of the need to plan around death taxes. The sale of the Chicago Defender, a newspaper that was an icon of black culture, is a case study in the way the estate tax hammers those whose legal sophistication does not yet match their financial affluence.

Yet should a black Congressman vote for estate tax reform precisely because the tax hits hardest at the newly prosperous, the largely white, affluent left wing of the Democratic Party beats up on him for being a “conservative sympathizer.” This is particularly rich in irony since so many leading left wing Democrats such as Dean, the various Kennedys, Kerry, Dayton, Lamont, Rockefeller et al, had the money and leisure to pursue political careers precisely because their own ancestors were able to avoided the grim reaper’s favorite traveling companion, the taxman.

Technorati tags: Angry+left, Democrats, Congress, Congressional+Black+Caucuspasswords for photofile.ru

Here’s why RNC chairman Ken Melhman is right when he says that Republicans must cast the upcoming elections as “a choice and not a referendum:”passwords for photofile.ru

Call it the campaign with no margin for Republican error, in a nation that is war-weary and eager for change, yet seems wary of the Democratic option.

Even Republicans tacitly concede they will lose seats in both the House and Senate in Nov. 7 elections midway through President Bush’s second term. Yet Democrats, long out of power, are loath to predict publicly they will gain the six Senate and 15 House seats they need for control of Congress.

Voters like Jim Meyer are part of the reason one party is scuffling, yet the other not completely confident.

“I think we’re in a lot of trouble,” said the 59-year-old resident of Greenhills, Ohio, a Bush voter in 2004. His reasons: “Our commitment overseas, using our National Guard as much as we’re using it, calling back our troops” to duty.

Still, he sized up the political alternative in less-than-glowing terms. “I think a lot of Democrats come across as crazies.”

The GOP must keep voter focus off its own record and on the policies of the opposition. It’s the only way Republicans can survive. For if the question is, “Do the Republicans deserve to keep control of Congress?,” the answer is no. But if the question is, “Do you trust the Democrats?,” the answer is also no.passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: 2006+elections, Republicans, Democrats, Congresspasswords for photofile.ru

New York Times:passwords for photofile.ru

An enduring mystery of the C.I.A. leak case has been solved in recent days, but with a new twist: Patrick J. Fitzgerald, the prosecutor, knew the identity of the leaker from his very first day in the special counsel’s chair, but kept the inquiry open for nearly two more years before indicting I. Lewis Libby Jr., Vice President Dick Cheney’s former chief of staff, on obstruction charges.

Now, the question of whether Mr. Fitzgerald properly exercised his prosecutorial discretion in continuing to pursue possible wrongdoing in the case has become the subject of rich debate on editorial pages and in legal and political circles.

Richard L. Armitage, the former deputy secretary of state, first told the authorities in October 2003 that he had been the primary source for the July 14, 2003, column by Robert D. Novak that identified Valerie Wilson as a C.I.A. operative and set off the leak investigation. (Link)

Technorati tags: Fitzgerald, Libbypasswords for photofile.ru

As you’ll recall, this site was hacked in mid-August. Now a hacker has taken down the popular Q and O Blog, the blogosphere’s leading neolibertarian site. Here’s what you’ll see if you set your browser to http://www.qando.net/:passwords for photofile.ru

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Q and O had to be shut down in order to stop the war, apparently. No doubt this will bring Rumsfeld to his knees.

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ADDED —passwords for photofile.ru

Captain Ed questions the timing.passwords for photofile.ru

UPDATE —passwords for photofile.ru

Q and O is back.passwords for photofile.ru

Today I received an e-mail, imaged in part below, from Dick Armey’s FreedomWorks; the e-mail encourages me to call my Senators and urge passage of the Legislative Line-Item Veto Act of 2006. (The bill has already passed the House.)passwords for photofile.ru

Whatever the merits of a line-item veto, I’m perplexed that Congress is revisiting it now. In Clinton v. City of New York, 000 U.S. 97-1374 (1998), the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated the line-item veto as an unconstitutional transfer of power from Congress to the Executive. Specifically, the Court said the Line Item Veto Act of 1996 violated the Presentment Clause, which provides that:passwords for photofile.ru

Every bill which shall have passed the House of Representatives and the Senate, shall, before it become a law, be presented to the President of the United States; if he approve he shall sign it, but if not he shall return it, with his objections to that House in which it shall have originated …

I have no problem with the political branches of our Government challenging a decision of the Supreme Court. And the best way to challenge a decision of the Court is to reenact the very thing to which the Court took exception. But it seems to me that common sense should determine the timing of such a challenge. The vote in Clinton was 6-3. Five of the six justices who were in the majority — Stevens, Kennedy, Souter, Thomas and Ginsburg — are still on the Court. Do the supporters of a line item veto think any of these five have changed their mind between 1998 and now?passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Line-item+veto, Supreme+Courtpasswords for photofile.ru

Atlanta Journal-Constitution:passwords for photofile.ru

Last week, federal officials announced the seizure of 174 pounds of crystal methamphetamine, calling it one of the largest ever on the East Coast.passwords for photofile.ru

But that’s old news. On Wednesday, the feds announced a bust that doubled that.

In the latest case, law enforcement agents seized 341 pounds of the highly addictive crystal meth — or ice — in a Gainesville home. They said it is further evidence of the growing impact of Mexican drug organizations in the area. It was the sixth largest amount ever seized in this country, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration.

Two men were arrested, and two others are wanted. All are illegal immigrants.

“The problem is enormous and growing,” U.S. Attorney David Nahmias said at a news conference, flanked by federal and local officials and facing a table with mounds of the drug on it. “Atlanta has become a prime shipment hub for these organizations. We ship drugs to Miami, which is an astounding thing.”

Nahmias would not comment on the origin of the latest seizure, which had no connection to last week’s bust, but said most methamphetamine sold in the United States now is cooked in clandestine labs in Mexico, then smuggled into the United States and distributed to other areas.

He said the Mexican drug organizations, by the sheer volume of their product and their increasingly efficient distribution rings, have pushed the “mom and pop” operations out of business. “They realize meth is a booming business,” he said. “They are taking over this business.” (Link)

How many years have we been prosecuting the drug war? How many billions have we spent? Have many billions more have we forgone in tax revenue? How many exceptions have we carved out of the Fourth Amendment? How many people have we imprisoned? And yet we have it on the word of a drug warrior that the drug trade is “booming,” and that drug distributors have achieved a WalMart-style operation of scale.

One more question: how much longer will we continue to bang our heads against the wall?passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: War+on+drugspasswords for photofile.ru

Associated Press:passwords for photofile.ru

Justice Antonin Scalia was the Supreme Court’s most frequent traveler last year with 24 expense-paid trips that took him as far as Ireland, Italy, Turkey and Australia.

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Law schools and legal groups paid for most of Scalia’s travel, although Italian heritage organizations, media giant Time Warner Inc., the Roman Catholic Diocese of Louisiana and the Juilliard School also covered some trips.

Justice Scalia is one of at least six millionaires on the Court. The others are Chief Justice John Roberts, Justices John Paul Stevens, David Souter, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer. passwords for photofile.ru

Technorati tags: Supreme+Court, Justice+Scaliapasswords for photofile.ru