Is New Jersey about to elect a Republican governor?

The incumbent rule says that an incumbent gets roughly the same percentage of the vote in an election that he got in pre-election polls.

So, if this poll is right, the incumbent rule would predict the defeat of Jon Corzine, New Jersey’s incumbent Democratic governor.

The poll may be flawed, of course, and the incumbent rule doesn’t always hold. Still, you have to like the GOP’s chances.