Washington Post:
By any measure, President Bush and his fellow Republicans had a good night on Nov. 2. The question now is whether the election results set the GOP up for a good decade -- or more.
As some partisan operatives and political scientists see it, Bush's reelection victory and simultaneous Republican gains in the House and Senate suggest that an era of divided government and approximate parity between the major parties is giving way to an era of GOP dominance. By this light, the Republican advantage on the most important issues of the day -- the fight against terrorism, most of all -- and the party's uncontested control of the federal government leave it in a position to win long-term loyalty among key voter blocs and craft an enduring majority.
As much as I'd like for it to be true, I doubt the GOP's victory this year heralds a "realignment" -- at least not if realignment means what the Post suggests: a readily reproducible coalition capable of winning future presidential elections.
This year's election was notable for three facts:
- historic turnout
- the weakness of the Democratic nominee
- and an aggressive, well-organized drive to get Republicans to the polls.
Yet Mr. Bush captured only 51% of the vote. I don't read that as an indication of realignment; I read it as an indication of maximum GOP voting strength. If so, it's worrisome.
For one thing, emerging changes in voter demographics do not bode well for Republicans. The U.S. Hispanic population is growing explosively, and I don't see how we can take that as anything but good news for Democrats. While more Hispanics than blacks vote Republican, Hispanics are still an overwhelmingly Democratic constituency; the notion that Mr. Bush won 44% of the Hispanic vote is just nonsense. (Incidentially, if the exit polls were wrong about Mr. Kerry winning the election, why are they right about the president's share of the Hispanic vote?)
Secondly, while the Republican coalition is stable for now, with the Nation on the field in Iraq and on alert at home, that's no guarantee of future stability. Even this year, the orgy of federal spending very nearly put many conservatives into open revolt; and the president's insistence on de facto amnesty for illegal aliens may push his party into civil war. In a quest for tighter immigration controls, rebellious House Republicans have already "stiffed" the president by derailing the intelligence reform bill. (Illegal immigration is to Republicans what same-sex marriage was to Democrats: a "category five hurricane" that they didn't see coming.)
The truth is that this year Mr. Bush got a pass. If you're a conventional Republican, you know he got a pass. You gave him one. So did I. On spending, immigration and federalism, among other things, key Republican constituencies let this president walk; we're a Nation at war, and if there's one issue on which virtually all Republicans are united, it's national security.
But this election is over and there's no heir apparent for 2008. Meanwhile, turning their attention from from power to principle, many in the party are asking: what does it mean to be a Republican?
The intraparty fighting begins shortly. There will be casualties. At 51%, we can't afford many.