Alito headed for Kennedy Court
10-8:
… there are no signs now of any Republican opposition and confirmation is likely.
Yes, in a body controlled by Republicans, lack of any Republican opposition generally signals victory. Funny how that works, huh?
But this is just wrong:
“This is not just any nomination,” said Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.). “This is going to tip the balance.”
No, unfortunately, Justice Alito will not “tip the balance” on the Court. Even if we assume — and it’s a big, big assumption — that both Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Alito will vote to overturn Roe, that still gives us only four votes for scrapping it. 9-4=5. So Roe is in no immediate danger.
Moreover, if you’ve followed Justice Anthony Kennedy’s career on the Court, you know he’s shown a debilitating interest in the adulation of the liberal media. He is to the Court as John McCain is to the Senate. And he will now step-in to fill the “swing” role played by Justice O’Connor. In “culture war” battles, watch and see: we’ll continue to get a series of 5-4 votes with Justice Kennedy at the pivot.
On top of which, it wouldn’t be as big a deal as people think if Roe v Wade were overturned. The law in most states would leave things unchanged. By far the biggest impact would be to further infuriate people who hate the far right.