Why Republicans should worry
Alas, it’s just not true. Republicans should have to worry, but they don’t have to worry. As even Charlie Cook admits (at link above), it’s nigh impossible to see — in view of gerrymandering and the other advantages of incumbency — how Democrats can muster enough House seats to retake the majority.
The midterms are still months away, but for now it’s reasonable to expect that Republicans will hold their losses to five or fewer seats. Democrats need 15.
The Democrats’ prospects are brighter in the Senate — you can go ahead and color Pennsylvania and Montana blue — but even there it’s hard to imagine them gaining the six seats they need for organizational control. (Keep in mind that even if the post-election Senate splits 50-50, Republicans will still be in charge as long as Dick Cheney is vice president.)
As a Republican I am, ironically, discouraged by the uphill struggle the Democrats face. My party has governed wretchedly, and it needs — it deserves — a first-class shellacking from the voters. We Republicans have lost our soul. Defeat might put us on the road to finding it.
This is a total distortion of my writings. I recently wrote two columns, the first, looking at the midterm elections from a macro-political standpoint, that appears nearly hopeless for the GOP. The second column, from a micropolitical point of view, looked at it race by race, showing how difficult it was. Four elections out of five, the micro approach works, the macro does not. but one election in five (ie wave elections), the micro does not work and the macro does. My columns can be found at www.cookpolitical.com
Charlie Cook
Since I’m unclear what the “this” is in “This is a total distortion of my writings,” I’m at a loss to reply to Mr. Cook.
Moreover, his comments here validate the very point I was making, namely that it’s difficult to see how Democrats can muster enough House seats to retake the majority.
In any case, Mr. Cook’s article was incidental to my view that although they deserve to lose, Republicans are likely to win come November. You’ll find Mr. Cook’s article, “The Intensity Factor,” at the title link above. You can read it for yourself.