Right Side of the Rainbow

Thoughtful analysis and discussion of the crisis in the Middle East at TigerHawk. In brief, if Iran, so as to “secure its position as the leading Muslim state,” is responsible for igniting this conflagration, can it remain idle as Israel eviscerates Hezbollah? It cannot, says Aristides:soldat 1.2 cracked

If … Iran’s regional aspirations are tied to its opposition to Israel and its support for the Palestinian agenda, then Iran has maneuvered itself conceptually to a place where it can never be seen to back down from any real or perceived Zionist attack. If Israel escalates this thing anymore — and they may already have escalated to a sufficient degree — Iran must respond or it will lose its long-sought prestige. If Iran desires to be the anti-Israel, it must show it here. If Hezbollah get’s dismantled without Iran doing anything, that might just be intolerable for the Mullahs’ self-perception. Therefore, war may already be determined.

TigerHawk adds:soldat 1.2 cracked

Iran cannot afford to let Israel decimate Hezbollah in Lebanon. If Israel measures its response to preserve Hezbollah, a wider war can still be avoided. However, if Israel decides that it can no longer allow Hezbollah to attack it from Lebanon [A reasonable decision, yes? — Ed.], Iran will have to intervene. The question is how? One method might be to increase the pressure on the United States, the external player with the greatest ability to influence Israel. If Iraq’s Shiites rise up during the crisis in Lebanon, we will know who is behind them.

From The Adventures of Chester, this concurrence:soldat 1.2 cracked

This is it, in a nutshell: Is Israel willing to risk a widening of the conflict in order to dismantle Hamas and Hezbollah? Is Iran willing to risk the dismantlement of Hamas and Hezbollah in order NOT to widen the conflict?

Perhaps Israel’s answer is here:soldat 1.2 cracked

Israel’s army chief Brig. Gen. Dan Halutz warned that “nothing is safe” in Lebanon and said Beirut itself — particularly Hezbollah offices and residences — would be a target. Maj. Gen. Udi Adam said Israel had hit hundreds of targets and hadn’t ruled out sending in ground troops.