House Watch: an audioblog review of six likely Democratic pick-ups
(Correction: In the audioblog, I refer to U.S. Rep. Jim Kolbe, R-AZ, as the only openly gay representative in Congress. That is, of course, wrong. I meant to say that Rep. Kolbe is the only openly gay Republican in Congress.)
Terms used in this audioblog:
Partisan Voter Index (PVI). Introduced by the Cook Political Report, PVI gauges a district’s competitiveness:
A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2.3, for example, means that in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, that district performed an average of 2.3 points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+3.8 means the district performed more Republican than the nation. (Link)
U.S. House races reviewed in this audioblog:
Texas 22
Vacant Republican seat
PVI: Republican +15
GOP nominee: None
Democratic nominee: Nick Lampson
Projected Democratic pick-up
See popup map of Texas 22
Indiana 2
PVI: Republican +4
GOP nominee: Chris Chocola, incumbent
Democratic nominee: Joe Donnelly
Projected Democratic pick-up
See popup map of Indiana 2
Indiana 8
PVI: Republican +9
GOP nominee: John Hostettler, incumbent
Democratic nominee: Brad Ellsworth
Projected Democratic pick-up
See popup map of Indiana 8
Indiana 9
PVI: Republican +7
GOP nominee: Mike Sodrel, incumbent
Democratic nominee: Baron Hill
Projected Democratic pick-up
See popup map of Indiana 9
Connecticut 2
PVI: Democrat +8
GOP nominee: Rob Simmons, incumbent
Democratic nominee: Joe Courtney
Projected Democratic pick-up
See popup map of Connecticut 2
Arizona 8
Incumbent Republican retiring
PVI: Republican +1
GOP nominee: Randy Graf
Democratic nominee: Gabrielle Giffords
Projected Democratic pick-up
See popup map of Arizona 8
Technorati tags: 2006+elections, Congress, Democrats, Republicans, Texas, Indiana, Connecticut, Arizona
There are precisely two liberal districts in the state of Indiana. In all other districts, the only way Democrats can win is to run conservatives as conservative as the national GOP — and the litmus test issue in Indiana is guns. Brady is a political kiss of death.
Surely, you didn’t think those Indiana districts would go Democrat, did you? The sheriff who is running against Hostettler looked for a while like he might have a chance — he’s about as conservative as Dick Armey — but that’s faded.
Of Indiana, rightwingprof writes:
Do you mean “conservatives” like Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN; ACU rating: 21)?
I’m not saying these projections are fixed in stone. Politics is fluid; the situation in Indiana could change. But I am saying that, with less than two months to go, the polling data for the three Indiana Republicans is horrible. In two of the three races, a majority of the voters have reportedly already made up their minds to vote against the GOP incumbents; plus, most undecideds usually break against the incumbent.
You might argue that something is wrong with the polls. Fair enough. But unless you can attack the data, it seems to me you have to admit these three Indiana Republicans are in trouble.
“Do you mean “conservatives” like Sen. Evan Bayh”
Ah, but Bayh was, by any person’s standard, a conservative governor, and that’s what you’re missing. Liberals don’t have a chance at the polls in Indiana.
No, it’s not that something is wrong with THE polls, but polls in general. There’s a reason no statistician takes polls or surveys seriously.