Right Side of the Rainbow

The only real question now is, “By how much?”all media fixer pro 5.4 serial

Red State has a district-by-district analysis that projects twelve Democratic pick-ups in the U.S. House; another five districts are classified as toss-ups. The Democrats need fifteen pick-ups for a majority.all media fixer pro 5.4 serial

When even a partisan Republican blog puts Democrats within striking distance of the win, you know the Democrats are well-positioned. all media fixer pro 5.4 serial

The Republican prognosticator at Election Projection also has the Democrats poised for victory; Scott Elliott projects them to pick-up seventeen seats.all media fixer pro 5.4 serial

Next weekend, when the last batch of polls is out, I’ll consider whether I should modify my own prediction that the Democrats will net between fifteen and twenty pick-ups. But two changes are already in order:all media fixer pro 5.4 serial

I originally projected a Democratic pick-up in Connecticut 2, where Republican incumbent Rob Simmons is facing Democrat Joe Courtney. But Simmons has amassed a crushing money advantage, and I now think he’s likely to win re-election.all media fixer pro 5.4 serial

Conversely, in Pennsylvania 7, where I thought Republican incumbent Curt Weldon would hold on, it’s the Democrat, Joseph Sestak, who has the huge money lead. Weldon has also been hurt an FBI investigation into alleged influence peddling. Sestak will win that race.all media fixer pro 5.4 serial

These switches are off-setting.all media fixer pro 5.4 serial

Look this week for any decent polling that might come out of the three hotly contested Republican-held seats in Connecticut. If there’s any evidence the Democrats are about to pull away nationally, Connecticut is the first place you’d expect to see it.all media fixer pro 5.4 serial

As of today, Election Projection forecasts (narrow) Republican wins in all three of those races, while Stuart Rothenberg classifies them as pure toss-ups.all media fixer pro 5.4 serial

Technorati tags: 2006+elections, Republicans, Democrats, US+House, Congressall media fixer pro 5.4 serial