Democrats will win the House
The only real question now is, “By how much?”
Red State has a district-by-district analysis that projects twelve Democratic pick-ups in the U.S. House; another five districts are classified as toss-ups. The Democrats need fifteen pick-ups for a majority.
When even a partisan Republican blog puts Democrats within striking distance of the win, you know the Democrats are well-positioned.
The Republican prognosticator at Election Projection also has the Democrats poised for victory; Scott Elliott projects them to pick-up seventeen seats.
Next weekend, when the last batch of polls is out, I’ll consider whether I should modify my own prediction that the Democrats will net between fifteen and twenty pick-ups. But two changes are already in order:
I originally projected a Democratic pick-up in Connecticut 2, where Republican incumbent Rob Simmons is facing Democrat Joe Courtney. But Simmons has amassed a crushing money advantage, and I now think he’s likely to win re-election.
Conversely, in Pennsylvania 7, where I thought Republican incumbent Curt Weldon would hold on, it’s the Democrat, Joseph Sestak, who has the huge money lead. Weldon has also been hurt an FBI investigation into alleged influence peddling. Sestak will win that race.
These switches are off-setting.
Look this week for any decent polling that might come out of the three hotly contested Republican-held seats in Connecticut. If there’s any evidence the Democrats are about to pull away nationally, Connecticut is the first place you’d expect to see it.
As of today, Election Projection forecasts (narrow) Republican wins in all three of those races, while Stuart Rothenberg classifies them as pure toss-ups.
Technorati tags: 2006+elections, Republicans, Democrats, US+House, Congress
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