Near final election predictions
A week to the day from election day, my near final predictions are here: 2006 Election Predictions.
Now as they say in Congress, I reserve the right to “revise and extend my remarks,” which I may do next Monday. For although I do not anticipate any radical changes in my predictions, you know what they say: overnight is an eternity in politics. (It’s possible, for example, that John Kerry may speak again.)
Some House races are really very, very close and it’s impossible from the available data to predict the outcome with any confidence. In New Mexico 1, for example, I projected that Democrat Patricia Madrid will defeat incumbent Republican Heather Wilson. (That is, by the way, a switch from what I predicted here.) But I readily admit that other observers may disagree.
In a few races, I buck the conventional wisdom. For instance, in Florida 16, a GOP stronghold, I think Republican Joe Negron is likely to hold Mark Foley’s seat. Republican voters there seem to understand that a vote for Foley will be counted as a vote for Negron.
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