Why John McCain is unlikely to win
Bill Kristol, columnist for the New York Times and editor of the Weekly Standard, has no useful advice for John McCain. (Pluck Clarence Thomas from a safe and critical seat on the Supreme Court? To take a crapshoot on the vice presidency, a job John Garner described as not worth “a pitcher of warm piss”? Mary, please.) But for everyone else, Kristol does have a useful offering: He describes well the obstacles to a McCain victory.
After noting that Democrats have just picked up a traditionally Republican House seat in Illinois, Kristol writes:
This isn’t encouraging for G.O.P. prospects in 2008. Nor is this: It’s rare for a party to win a third consecutive term in the White House. The only time it’s been done since World War II was in 1988. Then the incumbent, Ronald Reagan, had a job approval rating on Election Day in the high 50s. George Bush looks likely to remain stuck in the 30s. Factor in the prospect of a recession (the bad housing and job market reports at the end of last week were politically chilling) and the fact that a large majority already thinks the country’s going in the wrong direction. Add to the mix a huge turnout so far in the Democratic presidential primaries, far above that for the Republican contests, even when both parties still had competitive races.
And to all of that (and more), add this: A small but not insignificant number of conservatives isn’t going to vote for John McCain.
If you’re a Republican who wants to make a difference in 2008, find a viable House or Senate candidate whom you support and write him or her a check.